So, how do you see Spaceflight evolving over the next 100 years, manned and unmanned? What do you think will realistically happen, and what do you want to happen?

What sort of adventures do you think are worth having? And make a good case! :D Might be nice to have some debate about some positive imaginationy dreamy stuff for once!

So, have at it, your predicted/fantasy space chronology, 2011-2111.


I see massive colonies on the moon mars and Callisto...
2020|American moon base built
2029|Manned Mars Flyby
2030|First Russian moon mission
2037|American Base built and first american landing on mars
2060| manned lunar base population reaches 200
2061|First Child born in space large debate over citizenship and title of child
2062|Callisto base developed
2065|BAse becomes a colony population reaches 5000
2067|Chinese space program putts a small outpost on moon
2080|ET signal detected
2081|Scientist attempt to develop a strategy for interstellar travel
2083|The big three(America, Brazil and, Russia) develop a sure date for the first interstellar expedition(2130)
2090|A second signal reaches earth

@mariosargac (View Post)
I'm talking about spaceflight, not pollution.

Gordon Moore:

It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens

Let's imagine that by 2100, there are 10 billion people on the Earth, and we have a growth rate of "only" 5% (assuming constant growth rate). In a year there are already 500 million more people; that's over a million people per day. By 2110, there are 16.3 billion people; a year after that there are over 17 billion; over 800 million more. You will have to ship over 2 million people into space per day.

By 2120, the world population is roughly 26.5 billion; a year after that there are nearly 28 billion; roughly 1.3 billion more people in a single year.

By 2150, the world population is over 114 billion people. By 2151 there are over 120 billion people; a yearly growth rate of 5.7 billion people; a daily growth rate of nearly 16 million people (read: you're shipping almost the entire population of the Netherlands into space per day).

By 2190, the world population is over 800 billion. By 2191, the world population is over 847 billion; a yearly growth rate of roughly 40 billion people. A daily growth rate of nearly 110 million people (the entire current population of Mexico per day).

By 2200, the world population is roughly 1.38 trillion people. By 2201 the population is roughly 1.45 trillion people; a difference of nearly 70 billion people, a daily growth rate of 190 million. That's roughly the entire population of Brazil per day.

By 2250, the population might be nearly 16 trillion people. By the next year that will be 16.6 trillion people, nearly 800 billion extra, or a growth rate of over 2 billion people per day.

By 2300, the population might be over 180 trillion. By 2301 that would grow to roughly 190 trillion, an annual growth rate of nearly 9 trillion people, or a daily growth rate of nearly 25 billion people. You'd be adding the current population of Barbados every second.

Now, 9 trillion people, at an average mass of 70 kg (not counting assorted paraphenalia) is a total mass of over 6e14 kilograms. Where is all this mass supposed to be coming from!?

Sorry, but you can't have a constant growth rate like that. It'll tear logistics to shreds. I don't care if the economy supposedly needs it, or whatever. In that case, you don't try to fix mathamatics, you try to fix the economy.

Exponential growth is an evil thing. It doesn't only make itself worse; it makes itself worse-worse. And when it makes itself worse-worse, it makes itself worse-worse-worse...